Forecast Radar

Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 4.1%, reflecting entrenched frontline stalemates and recent escalations that underscore the absence of diplomatic momentum....

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, with "No" shares at 92.5%, reflecting stalled diplomacy and persistent frontline escalation....

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by Russia's repeated violations of short-term truces amid ongoing military escalation....

Ukraine's constitution prohibits national elections, including presidential and parliamentary votes, during martial law, which the Verkhovna Rada extended on April 28 for another 90 days to August 2 amid the ongoing Russian invasion....

President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, as announced by the White House, marking his first official trip to China since taking office....

Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end, driven by the absence of observable People's Liberation Army (PLA) mobilization signals amid routine gray-zone activities, including 169 aerial incursions into Taiwan...

White House confirmation of President Donald Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15, rescheduled from March amid the Iran conflict, anchors trader consensus favoring those dates, with May 13 leading at 70....

With President Trump's May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing just days away, traders assign an 88.5% implied probability to no US-Iran peace deal materializing beforehand, reflecting the absence of a finalized agreement despite accelerated dipl...

Trader consensus prices "No" at 87.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting steady deterrence amid routine People's Liberation Army activities without escalation signals....

Trader consensus on an 89.5% implied probability of no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 stems from the absence of major escalatory signals in the past 30 days, with People's Liberation Army (PLA) activities limited to routine gray-zone tactics...

Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98% for no Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or naval positioning signaling imminent action in the Taiwan Strait....

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 75.5% implied probability for the best AI model by May 31, driven by Claude Opus 4....

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 64.5% implied probability of having the best AI model by end of June, propelled by Claude Opus 4....

Trader sentiment reflects a razor-thin contest for the third-best AI model by May 31 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards, with Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 (57.28 TrueSkill) narrowly ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (57....

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking variant, released in mid-April 2026, has propelled the company to a commanding lead on the Arena....

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a commanding 95.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, driven by Chair Powell's April 29 press conference signaling a cautious policy stance amid tempered rate-...

Polymarket traders price a 55.3% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (0 basis points), reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient economy, with the next closest outcome—one 25 basis point...

Kevin Warsh's near-certain trader consensus as next Fed Chair reflects his swift advancement through the confirmation process, capped by the Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line vote on April 29 to send President Trump's nominee to the full Se...

President Trump's January nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, following Powell's term expiration on May 15, 2026, anchors trader consensus toward an imminent leadership transition....

WTI crude oil has retreated to $93.45 per barrel as of May 7, 2026—down 1.72% intraday—amid trader optimism over prospective U.S....

WTI crude oil futures have pulled back sharply to around $91 per barrel as of May 7, 2026, down over 4% daily amid hopes for a diplomatic deal easing Strait of Hormuz tensions following US-Iran clashes that drove prices above $115 Brent earlier in th...

WTI crude oil spot prices have plunged over 10% this week to around $90.50 per barrel as of May 7, driven primarily by trader optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace memorandum easing Strait of Hormuz tensions and averting supply disruptions....

Former President Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party secured an absolute majority in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election—the eighth in five years amid chronic political deadlock—positioning him as the clear frontrunner for prime mini...

Incumbent President Iliana Iotova leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for Bulgaria's autumn 2026 presidential election, bolstered by her high visibility during recent exploratory mandate consultations after Progressive Bulgaria's abso...