Forecast Radar

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM...

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Volodymyr Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"....

If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET....

If China is announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"....

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET....

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena....

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET....

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings....

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting)....

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?

This market will resolve to "Oil < $80; R Senate" if oil is less than $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election....

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election....

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number...

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters ab...

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number...

Parliamentary elections in Serbia are scheduled to be held on October 25, 2026. The first round of the Bulgarian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026....