Forecast Radar

Russia's maximalist territorial demands continue to anchor trader sentiment on any near-term ceasefire, with Moscow repeatedly rejecting proposals for even limited halts in strikes or freezes along current lines unless Ukraine cedes remaining portion...

If Ukraine qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on core issues blocking any ceasefire, particularly Moscow’s insistence on full control of Donetsk and other annexed regions versus Kyiv’s refusal to cede additional territory without robust security guarantees. U....

If Ukraine is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense September 2026 assessment states that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize joint landing capabilities yet still lacks the full amphibious, logistics, and command capacity for a large-scale invasio...

If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

China’s preference for sustained gray-zone coercion over a high-risk amphibious invasion underpins the strong trader consensus against a Taiwan invasion by the end of 2027....

If China is announced as a host for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup and confirmed by any of the Source Agencies, then the market resolves to Yes.

Taiwan’s defense assessments and ongoing cross-strait dynamics support the market’s strong “No” consensus. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through routine air and naval patrols, expanded coast guard operations east of the island, and joint comba...

Taiwan’s defense ministry report, released in early September 2026, states that PLA exercises increasingly emphasize joint blockade and control of external sea and air routes but confirms Beijing still lacks the amphibious lift, logistics sustainment...

Lai Ching-te, inaugurated in May 2024 for a four-year term ending in 2028, continues to exercise presidential authority in September 2026 through routine public duties on defense budgets, semiconductor policy, and cross-strait security....

China maintains steady gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through normalized China Coast Guard patrols and scientific surveys east of the island, expanded naval presence, and routine aerial incursions, though monthly flight totals have declined notably in...

Anthropic’s release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has driven the 90.5% market-implied odds that it holds the top large language model by month-end. The model leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign v5 at 82....

If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Anthropic's rapid succession of frontier releases, capped by Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 topping independent benchmarks like BenchAlign v5 at 82.8, drives the 70.5% implied probability it holds the best AI model by year-end....

If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Elevated inflation readings near 3.7% on the PCE index, driven by energy supply shocks from Middle East tensions, have positioned a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike as the leading outcome at 56....

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market have driven the overwhelming 88.9% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026....

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Recent US-Iran military escalations and renewed threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping have driven the primary catalyst behind WTI prices, which traded near $90 per barrel on September 2, 2026, after spiking above $92 intraday amid supply disruption fe...

If Oil is the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Escalating US-Iran hostilities have emerged as the dominant driver of crude oil prices, with WTI rising above $90 per barrel on September 2, 2026, and Brent near $96 amid fresh military strikes and renewed concerns over Strait of Hormuz transit risks...

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on September 2, 2026, is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures on the most recent prior trading day....

Iliana Iotova holds the leading position in the October 25, 2026 Bulgarian presidential election due to her incumbency as acting president since January 2026, combined with unified backing from Progressive Bulgaria—the party that secured a parliament...